America’s Roundup: Dollar set for third week of gains , Wall Street rallies, Gold retreats, Oil prices edge higher as US closes in on debt deal-May 27th,2023

Posted at 26 May 2023 / Categories Market Roundups

Market Roundup

•US  Apr Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM)  1.4%, -0.5% forecast, -0.4% previous

•US  Apr Retail Inventories Ex Auto   -0.1%, 0.3% previous

•US  Apr Goods Trade Balance -96.77B, -85.70B forecast, -84.60B previous

•US  Apr Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)  -0.2%,0.0% forecast, 0.3% previous

•US  Apr Personal Income (MoM)  0.4%,0.4% forecast, 0.3% previous

•Canada  Wholesale Sales (MoM) 1.6%,-0.1% previous

•US  Wholesale Inventories (MoM) -0.2%,0.0% forecast,0.0% previous

•US Apr Personal Spending (MoM) 0.8%, 0.4% forecast,0.0% previous

•US Apr Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 4.7%,4.6% forecast, 4.6% previous

•US Apr Core PCE Price Index (MoM)  0.4%,0.3% forecast,0.3% previous

•US Apr PCE Price index (YoY)  4.4%,3.9% forecast,4.2% previous

•US Apr PCE price index (MoM)  0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.1% previous

•US Apr Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 0.5%,0.0% previous

•US Apr Durable Goods Orders (MoM)  1.1%,-1.0% forecast, 3.2% previous

•US May Michigan Inflation Expectations  4.2%, 4.5% forecast,4.6% previous

•US May Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations  3.1%,3.2% forecast,3.0% previous

•US  May Michigan Current Conditions  64.9, 64.5 forecast,68.2 previous

•US  May Michigan Consumer Expectations 55.4,  53.4 forecast,60.5 previous

•US May Michigan Consumer Sentiment  59.2,57.9 forecast,63.5 previous

•Canada Mar Budget Balance -44.41B, -0.17B forecast,9.53B previous

•Canada Mar Budget Balance (YoY) -41.31B,-1.68B forecast,3.09B previous

•U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 711, 720 previous

•U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 570, 575 previous

Looking Ahead Economic data(GMT)

•No data Ahead

Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)

• No events ahead

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD: The euro regained some ground on Friday but  struggled to recoup recent losses against the dollar. U.S. President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy are closing in on a deal that would raise the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling for two years while capping spending on most items.Concerns about whether the two sides could reach a deal and avert a debt default have weighed on markets in the recent weeks. The single currency was last up 0.1% against the dollar at $1.07350, but was not far from its two-month low of $1.0708 hit in the previous session. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0762(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0772(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at  1.0704 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0633(61.8%fib).

GBP/USD: The pound rose on Friday after data showed UK retail sales volumes rose at their fastest pace in nearly two years, as renewed consumer confidence helped offset the sting of high inflation and rates. Between February and April, sales rose 0.8% from the previous three months, the biggest such increase since the three months to August 2021, according to data from the Office for National Statistics. Sterling was last up 0.3% against the dollar at $1.2342. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2397 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2431 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2312 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2289(Lower BB).

 USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Friday but still posted a weekly decline as the recent rise in U.S. bond yields helped underpin the greenback. Preliminary domestic data showed wholesale trade up 1.6% in April from March, while Canada's finance ministry said that the budget deficit shrank to C$41.31 billion ($30.89 billion) in fiscal 2022/23 as a post-pandemic economic rebound spurred tax revenue and spending on support measures fell.The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at 1.3625 to the greenback, or 73.39 U.S. cents, after touching its weakest intraday level since April 28 at 1.3654. For the week, the currency was down 0.9%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3660(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3690 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3587 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3570(5DMA).

USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar   strengthened against Japan's as traders assessed the progress of U.S. debt ceiling negotiations and the Federal Reserve's rate hike path. U.S. President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy appeared to be closing in on an agreement ahead of a June 1 deadline that would raise the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling for two years. A top Republican, however, said there were disagreements over some benefit programs for low-income Americans. Meanwhile, after the market close Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen extended the deadline for raising the debt limit to June 5. Strong resistance can be seen at 140.84(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 141.34(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 139.49(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 138.94(38.2%fib)

Equities Recap

European shares jumped on Friday on strong gains in technology stocks, although the main benchmark logged a steep weekly decline on growing concerns over a slowing global economy and uncertainty around debt ceiling talks in the United States.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0. 0.74 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.20 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 1.24  percent.

U.S. stocks finished sharply higher on Friday as talks on raising the U.S. debt ceiling progressed, while chip stocks surged for a second straight day on optimism about artificial intelligence.

Dow Jones closed up by 1.00 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 1.30 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 2.19 percent.

Treasuries Recap

U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday on expectations the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates again in either June or July after consumer spending figures showed annual inflation rose slightly last month.

The yield on two-year notes   which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, jumped 5.2 basis points to 4.562%, while a closely watched gap between two- and 10-year notes widened further, indicating a recession looms

Commodities Recap

Gold gave up some gains on Friday and was on course for a third straight weekly loss on the likelihood of a last-minute debt ceiling deal and as a hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation gauge raised bets for rates to stay higher for longer.

Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,943.12 per ounce by 1:40 p.m. EDT (1740 GMT), having risen as much as 0.9% in the session. U.S. gold futures settled mostly flat at $1,944.30.

Oil prices ticked up on Friday as U.S. officials appeared close to striking a debt-ceiling deal, and as the market weighed conflicting messages on supply from Russia and Saudi Arabia ahead of the next OPEC+ policy meeting.

Brent crude settled 69 cents, or 0.9%, higher at $76.95 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate closed up 84 cents, or 1.2%, at $72.67 a barrel.

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