Posted at 14 September 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
•PPI, retail sales rise on energy prices
•Oil rises to highest in 2023 on tight supply expectations
•ECB hikes for 10th straight meeting but hints at end of cycle
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 224.50K, 229.25K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,688K,1,695K forecast,1,679K previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 220K ,225K forecast,216K previous
•Canada Jul Wholesale Sales (MoM) 0.2%, 1.4% forecast,-2.8% previous
•US Retail Sales (YoY) 2.47%,3.17% previous
•US Aug PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) 3.0%, 2.7% previous
•US Core PPI (MoM) 0.2%,0.2% forecast,0.3% previous
•US Aug PPI (YoY) 1.6%,1.2% forecast,0.8% previous
•US Aug PPI (MoM) 0.7%, 0.4%forecast,0.3% previous
•US Aug Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.6%,0.4% forecast,1.0% previous
•US Core PPI (YoY) 2.2%,2.2% forecast,2.4% previous
•US Aug Retail Sales (MoM) 0.6%,0.2%forecast,0.7% previous
•US Aug Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) 0.2%,0.5% forecast,1.0% previous
•US Aug Retail Control (MoM) 0.2%,1.0% previous
•US Aug PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) 0.3%,0.2% previous
•US Jul Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.0%, 0.1% previous
•US Jul Business Inventories (MoM) 0.0%,0.1%forecast, 0.0% previous
•US Natural Gas Storage57B, 48B forecast, 33B previous
•US 4-Week Bill Auction 5.285%,5.280% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•02:00 China Aug Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 3.3% forecast,3.4% previous
•02:00 China Aug Retail Sales (YoY) 3.0% forecast, 2.5% previous
•02:00 China Aug Chinese Industrial Production YTD (YoY) 3.9% forecast,3.8% previous
•02:00 China Aug Industrial Production (YoY) 4.0% forecast,3.7% previous
•02:00 China Aug Chinese Unemployment Rate 5.3% forecast, 5.3% previous
•04:30 Japan Jul Tertiary Industry Activity Index 3.90 previous
Looking Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
EUR/USD: Euro dipped against dollar on Thursday as euro was weighed down after European Central Bank’s signal that it was finished with its rate hike cycle. The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the 10th meeting in a row on Thursday to counter stubborn inflation but signalled that it is likely done tightening policy.The central bank for the 20 countries that use the euro lifted its deposit rate to 4% from 3.75%, taking it to an all-time-high. Markets and economists expect the policy tightening move to be the ECB's last and now anticipate a lengthy pause, followed by rate cuts in the second half of next year. The euro was down 0.89% at $1.0635 after falling to $1.0629, its weakest since March 17 and on pace for its biggest one-day percentage fall since July 27.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0711(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0741(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0630(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0594(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling declined against the dollar on Thursday, as sterling continued its downward march following weak UK economic data. An industry survey released earlier on Thursday showed British house prices had the most widespread falls in 14 years in August as demand weakened against the backdrop of elevated mortgage costs and economic uncertainty.This followed data on Wednesday showing the economy contracted by 0.5% in July, worse than expectations for a contraction of 0.2% and the largest drop in monthly output since December 2022. Sterling traded at $1.2405, down 0.68% on the day after falling to $1.2400, a three-month low and was poised for its biggest one-day percentage decline since Aug. 24. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2459(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2528(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2379(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2313(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar on Thursday strengthened against its U.S. counterpart and all the other G10 currencies as investor sentiment improved and the price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, climbed to its highest level this year. U.S. crude oil futures settled 1.9% higher at $90.16 a barrel on expectations of tighter supply. Domestic data showed that wholesale trade grew by 0.2% in July from June, short of estimates for a 1.4% gain, helped by higher sales in the motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories subsector.The loonie was trading 0.2% higher at 1.3514 per U.S. dollar, or 74.00 U.S. cents, after touching its strongest intraday level since Sept. 1 at 1.3494. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3538 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3580(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3493 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3460(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against Japanese yen on Thursday as hotter than expected U.S. retail sales and producer prices boosted dollar. U.S. retail sales increased 0.6% in August, more than the expected 0.2% rise, boosted by higher gasoline prices while weekly initial jobless claims rose to 220,000 but were below the 225,000 forecast. Rising gasoline prices also affected the latest inflation data, as the producer price index for final demand rose 0.7% last month, more than the 0.4% estimate. Although markets are pricing in that the Fed would hold rates unchanged at their policy meeting next week, there’s a 39% probability of a rate rise in November, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool .The dollar index was last up 0.64% at 105.41, just off the 105.43 level hit earlier in the day. Strong resistance can be seen at 147.81(23.66%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.43 ( Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 147.23 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 146.4000(38.2%fib).
European shares notched up their biggest percentage gain in six months on Thursday after the European Central Bank (ECB) signalled that its monetary tightening was nearing an end, while stronger commodity prices boosted miners and energy stocks .
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 1.95 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.97 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 1.19 percent.
U.S. stocks ended sharply higher and the greenback jumped on Thursday as robust economic data failed to budge expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave its key interest rate unchanged next week.
Dow Jones ended up by 0.96 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.84 percent, Nasdaq ended up by 0.81 percent.
Treasury yields see-sawed on Thursday as concerns receded a bit about hotter than expected U.S. retail sales and producer prices in August as much of the rising costs were driven by a surge in gasoline prices that could wane in coming months.
The two-year Treasury yield, which reflects interest rate expectations, rose 0.8 basis points to 4.992%, while the yield on the benchmark 10-year note was up 2.6 basis points at 4.274%.
Gold prices held near a three-week low on Thursday after higher-than-expected U.S. producer prices and retail sales data raised worries U.S. interest rates are likely to stay higher for longer, boosting the dollar and bond yields.
Spot gold rose 0.1% to $1,909.05 per ounce by 1:47 p.m. EDT (1747 GMT), after touching $1,900.81, its lowest since Aug. 23. U.S. gold futures settled little changed at $1,932.80.
Oil prices climbed on Thursday to their highest this year, as expectations of tighter supply outweighed worries about weaker economic growth and rising U.S. crude inventories.
Brent crude rose $1.82, or 1.98%, to settle at $93.70, after touching $93.89, its highest since November 2022.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) gained $1.64, or 1.85%, to $90.16, closing above $90 for the first time since November.