Posted at 26 September 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
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EUR/USD: The euro dipped on Monday after a survey showed German business morale deteriorated slightly in September, falling for the fifth month and underlining recession fears in the euro zone's largest economy. The Ifo institute said its business climate index stood at 85.7, a decline from a revised August figure of 85.8 but above the 85.2 forecast by analysts in a poll. The dollar index hit 106.10, the highest since Nov. 30.The euro dropped to $1.05750, the lowest since March 16.The single currency was on track to lose roughly 1.9% for the month, its steepest monthly fall since May, amid growing recession fears. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0653(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0693(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0570(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0551(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped to its lowest in six months against the dollar on Monday, as jitters across asset classes hurt the currency already bruised by markets' reevaluation of the Bank of England's rate outlook.The BOE kept rates on hold last week - the first meeting at which it had done so since December 2021 - on the back of signs economic growth is slowing.Market pricing prior to that meeting had reflected expectations that a further 25 basis point rate hike was all but certain for 2023, if not at that specific meeting, but, on Monday, expectations for a further rate hike this year were roughly 40%. Sterling, on Monday, dropped as much as 0.25% to $1.2213 its lowest since March 2023, though later steadied to trade flat on the day at $1.2242. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2290(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2328(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2205 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2167(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar rose against its U.S. counterpart on Monday and the 10-year yield moved above 4% for the first time in nearly 16 years, as investors bet that the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada would stick with their hawkish stances. Last week, the Fed projected that monetary policy would be kept significantly tighter through 2024 than previously expected, while hotter-than-expected domestic inflation data bolstered bets on the BoC raising interest rates further. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, settled 0.4% lower at $89.68 a barrel as Russia relaxed its fuel export ban.The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at 1.3470 to the greenback, or 74.24 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.3455 to 1.3491. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3469 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3477 (9DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3403(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3384 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose against the yen to 11-month high on Monday following last week's gains, keeping traders focused on Japan intervention risks. The yen was also hurt after the Bank of Japan on Friday maintained ultra-low interest rates and its pledge to keep supporting the economy until inflation sustainably hits its 2% target, suggesting it was in no rush to phase out its massive stimulus program. The yen is also suffering as the gap between 10-year Treasury and Japanese bond yields widens, with the U.S. debt yields rising at a faster pace than Japan’s. The Japanese currency remained within striking distance of 150, a level which some market watchers saw as a line in the sand that would spur forex intervention from Japanese authorities similar to that of last year. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.12(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.55 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 148.34(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 147.03 (38.2%fib).
European shares closed at their weakest level in over a month on Monday as worries about interest rates staying elevated for longer and a slowing Chinese economy dented the mood.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.78 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.98 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.85 percent. .
Wall Street's main indexes posted gains on Monday, with increases in Amazon.com shares and the energy sector, as Treasury yields rose further and investors looked to economic data and Federal Reserve policymakers' remarks later in the week for clarity on the path for interest rates.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.13% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.40% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.45% percent.
Gold prices slipped on Monday as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields firmed on the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer stance on interest rates.
Spot gold was down 0.5% at $1,915.61 per ounce by 2:15 p.m. EDT (1815 GMT), while U.S. gold futures settled 0.5% lower at $1,936.6.
Oil prices settled nearly flat in choppy trade on Monday as Russia relaxed its fuel ban and investors eyed elevated interest rates that could curb demand.
Brent crude futures settled 2 cents higher at $93.29 a barrel.U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled 35 cents lower at $89.68.