Posted at 17 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
•UK Oct Retail Sales (YoY) -2.7%,-1.5% forecast,-1.0% previous
•UK Oct Core Retail Sales (MoM) -0.1%, 0.4% forecast,-1.0% previous
•UK Oct Core Retail Sales (YoY) -2.4%,-1.5% forecast,-1.2% previous
•UK Oct Unemployment Rate 7.4%, 7.7% previous
•UK Oct Retail Sales (MoM) -0.3%,0.3% forecast,-0.9% previous
•Spanish Trade Balance -3.80B, -4.40B previous
•EU Sep Current Account 31.2B ,20.3B forecast,27.7B previous
•EU Sep Current Account n.s.a. 40.8B, 30.7B previous
•EU Oct CPI (MoM) 0.1%,0.1% forecast,0.3% previous
•EU CPI, n.s.a 124.54 ,124.55 forecast,124.43 previous
•EU Oct CPI (YoY) 2.9%, 2.9% forecast,4.3% previous
•EU Oct CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) 2.8%,4.3% previous
•EU Oct Core CPI (MoM) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast,0.2% previous
•EU Oct HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) 5.0%,5.0% forecast,5.5% previous
•EU Oct CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) 0.1%,0.3% previous
•EU Oct Core CPI (YoY) 4.2%,4.2% forecast,4.5% previous
•EU Oct HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 Canada RMPI (YoY) 2.4% previous
•13:30 Canada Sep Foreign Securities Purchases -8.47B previous
•13:30 Canada Oct RMPI (MoM) (Oct)-2.0% forecast,3.5% previous
•13:30 Canada Oct IPPI (YoY) 0.6% previous
•13:30 US Oct Housing Starts (MoM) 7.0% previous
•13:30 Canada Sep Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians 14.94B previous
•13:30 US Oct Housing Starts 1.345M forecast,1.358M previous
•13:30 US Oct Building Permits 1.450M forecast,1.471M previous
•13:30 US Oct IPPI (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.4% previous
•13:30 US Oct Building Permits (MoM) -4.5% previous
•16:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 2.2% forecast,2.2% previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 494 previous
•18:00 U.S U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 616 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•13:45 US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
•13:45 US Fed Collins Speaks
•14:45 US Fed Goolsbee Speaks
•15:00 US FOMC Member Daly Speaks
•15:15 USD Fed Collins Speaks
EUR/USD: The euro steadied against dollar on Friday as a batch of softer U.S. economic data took some of the steam out of dollar. A softer tone to U.S. economic data this week has fuelled rate-cuts bets, pushing Treasury yields and dollar down.A fall in U.S. Treasury yields gathered momentum, with the 10-year yield falling to its lowest level since September at around 4.38% - a sharp drop from the 5.02% high hit just last month. On the data front, EU's statistics office confirmed year-on-year inflation slowed sharply. Eurostat said consumer inflation in the 20 countries using the euro decelerated to 2.9% year-on-year in October from 4.3% in September after prices rose 0.1% month-on-month. The euro was a fifth of a percent firmer at $1.0872 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0897(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0930( (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0843 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0827(5DMA).
GBP/USD: The pound weakened on Friday after data showed that British retail sales unexpectedly fell in October, as cash-strapped consumers stayed at home, stirring up investor concern about the resilience of household spending power. Retail sales volumes dropped 0.3% month-on-month, following a revised 1.1% decline in September that was worse than first estimated, the Office for National Statistics said.Economists polled had forecast sales volumes would rise by 0.3% on the month in October. Sterling was last down 0.1% on the day at $1.24, while the euro was up 0.2% against the pound at 87.55 pence. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2450(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2492 (Nov 15thth high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2407 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2378(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar dipped against Swiss franc on Friday as market expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve is done hiking rates weighed on the dollar. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, which could help the Fed's fight against inflation. On Tuesday, data showed U.S. headline consumer prices were flat in October, against expectations for a 0.1% rise. Core CPI, at 0.2%, came in below a forecast of 0.3%.The slowing jobs market and weaker-than-expected consumer inflation data prompted market participants to revise their forecasts for future Fed action.Traders now widely expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged at its Dec. 12-13 policy meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8909(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8928(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8866(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8800(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the yen to trade below 150 per dollar as concerns grow about the worsening global economic outlook. Cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data on Tuesday helped reset market expectations for how quickly the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut rates and has weighed on the dollar, which is on track for a 1.6% weekly fall - its biggest drop since mid-July. The yen - which has been punished broadly by dollar strength - broke the 150 mark versus the dollar for the first time in nearly two weeks. The dollar lost nearly 1% versus the Japanese currency and was last down 0.9% at 149.32 yen .Strong resistance can be seen at 150.11(5DMA),an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.62(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.26 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 148.12 (50%fib).
European shares climbed on Friday and were set for a weekly rise, led by healthcare stocks, while investors keenly awaited inflation data for further proof of easing price pressures across the board..
(At GMT 12:40UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.75 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.86 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.91 percent.
Gold prices climbed to a two-week high on Friday and were set to mark their first weekly rise in three, as market expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve is done hiking rates weighed on the dollar and Treasury yields.
Spot gold was up 0.5% at $1,991.48 per ounce, as of 1059 GMT. Prices were up about 2.8% so far this week.
Oil prices gained about 2% on Friday as Iraq voiced support for OPEC+'s oil cuts ahead of a meeting in two weeks and as some speculators covered massive short positions ahead of weekend uncertainty.
Brent futures rose $1.42, or 1.8%, to settle at $81.43 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.43, or 1.9%, to settle at $77.17.