Europe Roundup: Euro falls to July 2020 lows as Germany's business morale darkens, Gold steadies,Oil prices rise despite release of crude from strategic reserve-November 24th,2021

Posted at 24 November 2021 / Categories Market Roundups

Market Roundup

•German Nov Business Expectations  94.2,95.4 forecast, 95.4 previous

•German Nov Current Assessment  99.0,99.0 forecast, 100.1 previous

•German Nov Ifo Business Climate Index 96.5,96.7, 97.7 previous

•UK Nov CBI Industrial Trends Orders  26,18 forecast,9 previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)

•13:30 US Real Consumer Spending (Q3) 1.6% previous

•13:30 US GDP Sales (Q3) -0.1% previous

•13:30 US GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 2.1% forecast, 2.0% previous

•13:30 US PCE Prices (Q3) 5.3% previous

•13:30 US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3) 5.7% forecast, 5.7% previous

•13:30 US Oct Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)  0.5% forecast, 0.5% previous

•13:30 US Oct Durable Goods Orders (MoM)  0.2%  forecast, -0.3% previous

•13:30 US Oct Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) -1.9% previous

•13:30 US Oct Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.7% previous

•13:30 US Oct Goods Trade Balance -97.03B previous

•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 264K forecast, 268K previous

•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims2,045K forecast, 2,080K previous

•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 272.75K previous

•13:30 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 1.4% previous

•15:00 US Oct Personal Income (MoM)  0.2% forecast, -1.0% previous

•15:00 US Oct Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 0.3% previous

•15:00 US PCE Price index (YoY)  4.4 previous

•15:00 US Oct Personal Spending (MoM)  1.0% forecast, 0.6% previous

•15:00 US Oct PCE price index (MoM)  0.3% previous

•15:00 US Oct Core PCE Price Index (MoM)  0.4% forecast, 0.2% previous

•15:00 US Oct Core PCE Price Index (YoY)  4.1%  forecast, 3.6% previous

•15:00 US Oct New Home Sales  800K     forecast, 800K previous

•15:00 US Nov Michigan Consumer Sentiment  67.0 forecast, 66.8 previous

•15:00 US Nov Michigan Consumer Expectations  63.0 forecast, 62.8 previous

•15:00 US Nov Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations  2.90% previous

•15:00 US Oct New Home Sales (MoM)  14.0% previous

•15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories 1.398M forecast, -2.101M previous

•15:30 US Gasoline Inventories-0.575M forecast, -0.708M previous

•18:00 US   Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 556 previous

•18:00 US U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 454 previous

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

•19:00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes


EUR/USD: The euro fell on Wednesday after a survey showed German business morale deteriorated in November. German business sentiment worsened for the fifth month as supply challenges in manufacturing and a spike in coronavirus infections clouded the growth outlook for Europe’s largest economy. The Ifo institute said its business climate index fell to 96.5 from 97.7 in October.The euro fell 0.3% to its lowest level since early July 2020 at $1.1205. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1228(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1274 (5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1200(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1164(Lower BB).

GBP/USD: The British pound edged lower on Wednesday, within striking distance of its 11-month low against the dollar, as expectations for a rate hike supported the greenback. Meanwhile, investors remained focused on whether or not the Bank of England will raise interest rates at its December meeting, while they wondered about the impact of the new wave of COVID-19 cases across the continent.At 0833 GMT, the pound was up 0.01% versus the dollar. It hit its lowest level since Dec. 22, 2020, on Tuesday at $1.334. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3414(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3433(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3343 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3261 (Lower BB).

USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Wednesday as dollar strengthened as the re-nomination of Fed Chair Jerome Powell firmed bets of faster monetary policy tightening. Markets think Powell is more likely to respond sooner and harder to inflation than Lael Brainard - the other contender for the job, who has been nominated as vice chair .Focus will also be on a clutch of U.S. data, including economic growth figures and the pivotal personal consumption expenditures price index, due later in the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9367(23.6 % fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9400 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9320 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9310(5DMA ).

USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against the Japanese yen on Wednesday as rising COVID-19 cases in Europe, weaker economic sentiment in Germany and a bagful of U.S. data ahead of Thanksgiving kept investors cautious. Investors face a welter of data in the United States later in the day ahead of Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday, including the PCE index, an inflation index closely watched by the Federal Reserve. Strong resistance can be seen at 115.24 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 115.45 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 114.68(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 114.24 (50% fib).

Equities Recap

European shares rebounded on Wednesday after a four-day losing streak, as higher commodity prices helped offset fears around Europe's worsening COVID-19 situation and the prospect of severe restrictions.

At (GMT 11:09 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.09 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.87 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.56  percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold steadied on Wednesday on a slight pullback in Treasury yields, with investors refraining from making big bets in the run-up to minutes from the Federal Reserve’s November policy meeting and key economic data.

Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,792.24 per ounce by 0928 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.5% to $1,791.80.

Oil prices rose, extending gains from the previous session, as investors remained sceptical about the effectiveness of a U.S.-led release of oil from strategic reserves in a bid to cool prices after repeated calls for more crude failed to sway OPEC+ producers.

Brent crude futures reversed early losses to rise 0.5% to $82.71 a barrel and U.S. crude futures rose 0.6% to $78.93 a barrel.

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